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Why McCain is Wrong on Iraq - From William S. Lind

Senator John McCain's position on the situation in Iraq is wrong on two counts, which means his criticism of Senator Obama is also wrong. The twin pillars of McCain's assessment of the war are a) the surge worked and b) because the surge worked we are now winning. Neither of those views is based in fact.

The first represents the long-recognized logical fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc, i.e., because one event occurred after another, it was a consequence of the first event. Because the cock crows before sunrise, he thinks he makes the sun come up. Because violence in Iraq dropped after the surge, McCain claims the surge caused the reduction in violence. He is quick to add that he supported the surge at the time, which Obama did not. In the real world, neither rooster nor Senator has quite so much reason to strut upon his dunghill...

In his first assertion, Senator McCain is claiming credit where credit is not due. In his second, that we are winning in Iraq, he fails to understand what “winning” means in a Fourth Generation conflict. The current reduction in violence in Iraq does not mean we are winning. Nor does al Qaeda’s incipient defeat mean we are winning. We win only if a state re-emerges, the state we destroyed by our invasion. A reduction in violence and the defeat of al Qaeda are necessary preconditions for the re-emergence of a state, but they are not sufficient to ensure it...

So McCain is wrong on both counts. The fact that a Presidential candidate is fundamentally wrong on so important a subject as the war in Iraq is disturbing. More disturbing is the nature of the errors. Both represent carryovers of Bush administration practices. [More]

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It looks like Johnny Howard's been teaching Daubya about "Mateship" and the lesson has sunk in as the former Aussie PM has been booked into the Blair House, a high security guesthouse across the road from the White House from the 12th in order to be on hand to recieve the Presidential Medal of Freedom, to be presented to Howard on January 19.

The Blair House is tradidionally used by the President-Elect in the lead up to the inauguration and the Obamas has asked to be moved into the Blair House earlier so their two young children could start at their new school on the first day of the new term but have since been booked into the Presidential Suite at the Hay-Adams Hotel.

Comments from various blogs have not been complimentary:

"What would possess Howard to not at least publicly offer up his stay at Blair House to Obama. Then Obama could graciously say no thank you. By keeping his reservation and being silent Howard showed himself to be not that bright of a person and one can understand how he would pal around with george in an illegal war or two.
It would not be above george to threaten Howard with not giving him the medal if he didn't stay at Blair House and it would not be below Howard to respond to the threat in the way that he did, sort of like a cowering dog. The Aussies must really be proud of their guy. Any body got a shoe."
- Conrad C. Elledge

"George couldn't make this idiot stay at the hay-adams?" - Joe"no doubt Howard is receiving the honor for driving his country's currency into the abyss." - Urbuhlship

"Ah...the administration that live and died by the belief that loyalty trumped competence, clarity and every other imaginable factor-hands out a last few favors to the brown nose gang of three.
With the former prime minister of Australia getting the nod to stay in the Blair House-instead of making way for the incoming President.
How fitting. G'day-as they say-down under."
- Don Duval

"Handing out medals by the dozens to his supporters is about the only thing this president seems capable of actually doing. What is the cost to the U.S. taxpayers to bring these guys to Washington so ding-dong in chief can hang a goofy medal around their necks, or pin them on their jackets, or whatever one does with them? At least the national medal budget will likely be significantly reduced after January 20th." - Bill