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Tomorrow's World - From The Alchemist

While our weather beaten planet may continue to swirl, ever more are sensing that a catastrophe is on the cards. Cultures, diets, values, pleasures, politics, etc, could face an upheaval, if the latest climate projections are only half right. Yesterday's 100 words described the re-emergence of fear in public life and HPD's Front Desk unveiled a project to radically manipulate the globe's atmosphere with ash sodden geo-engineering, no doubt to the benefit of those footing the bill. Clue: Not the Third World.

A sober website is doing the rounds, listing "100 items to disappear first", starting with generators, water purifiers, portable toilets, 'seasoned firewood', thermal underwear & garbage bags . The futurist paperback of the moment is Cormac McCarthy's, The Road, an eco tear jerker of tremendous power, which some of my friends are too scared to read, although it is a plausible and, yes! - empowering scenario. Meanwhile, politicians look to corporates for solutions, which is like begging Satan to design the Garden of Eden.

The future may not be easy or pretty. It cannot be outsourced. It can only be insourced. It will need poets & gardeners & scientists with soul. It will need camaraderie. It is too late to whistle in the dark.


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The pointless battle against binge drinking
5 may  |  By Stephen Myles

Since the days of Alexander the Great, binge drinking has been a very popular past time - leading to him apparently killing a friend and burning down Persepolis while drunk.

Those are some Great shoes to fill.

Yet, governments, schools and the media have repeatedly tried to teach us of binge drinking's dangers. 

Dartmouth University has taken the lead, instigating a new nationwide policy to curb heavy drinking by their students.

Pour me another glass.

Binge drinking is defined as "the consumption of five or more drinks in a row by men — or four or more drinks in a row by women — at least once in the previous 2 weeks. Heavy binge drinking includes three or more such episodes in 2 weeks."

Seems I don't know anyone who isn't a heavy binge drinker.

Do you think this definition should be changed or should we change people's attitudes? Or should you follow HPD's no fools guide to drinking a lot but not dying?  . . read more

The Media Climate - From Stan
27 feb  |  A recent newspaper item by a well known Australian economics journalist entitled ‘Hitting the non-existent limits’, emphasises how little-understood are the limits to (exponential) growth. With a vague reference to the remarkable work done by the Club of Rome in the now updated book The Limits To Growth, the author has highlighted the dangers of climate change. Citing the fast growing economies of India and China (about 10% per year or a doubling in size after just 7 years), the article suggests their rapid growth would be impermissible in future years if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.

This is no doubt true. However it is only the tip of the now-melting iceberg. The real strength of the work presented in The Limits To Growth was the modelling of exponential growth under many limits simultaneously. Even a growth rate of as little as 2-3% per year (about the current rate in the ‘developed world’ and approximately that modelled in the book) amounts to a doubling in size of industrial output and population within 23-35 years. The results of the modelling show that if growth is allowed to continue, the world system simply loses the ability to cope. Depreciation begins to exceed investment with increased expenditure on sources (technologies) and sinks (pollution mitigation).

Although heavily publicised, climate change is only one of the indicators that the world system has indeed already reached the limits to growth. Other indicators include; peak oil, the lack of arable land and decreasing land yield, a shortage of timber, the decreasing catch of fish and the need to construct desalination plants at huge expense. . . read more

Rain rain go away for the Sunshine State
2 feb  |  By Stephen Myles

As Queensland braces for its second apocalyptic weather event in recent weeks, many in the ironically nicknamed 'Sunshine State' must be starting to wonder whether the next two horsemen are on their way. 

Well not to give away any spoliers but they will be, and soon.

Yes, maybe not in Queensland (hopefully that battered State gets some respite) but as blackbirds fall from the sky and mud slides hit Brazil; the increasnig frequency of bizarre and freakishly strong climate change based catastrophes means something will hit hard and hit soon. 

   . . read more

Cop16: Completely Disinterested
18 nov  |  By Don Reilly (The University of Indiana Bloomington)

November 29th 2010 marks an important date in the world's calendar- struggling to think why? Leafing through your diary to find some obscure anniversary you should have remembered?

Well I'll kill the suspense; November 29th marks the beginning of COP16- the follow up meeting for fighting climate change a year after the disaster that was Copenhagen.

Now, I think there will be a few reactions you could be having to this news:

- Complete disinterest as global agreement on climate change (bar CFCs in the 1990s) has been wildly ineffective- why should this be any different?

- Or complete disinterest because you don't believe in climate change and think this meeting is either a waste of time or proof of a shadowy new world order being created as we speak.

- Or finally, you might be feeling complete disinterest as you find yourself surprised that there has been absolutely no media coverage leading up to the event or really on climate change at all- yet you still find yourself shrugging.

So for the first and third reactions, I have to ask, do you really think complete disinterest will solve any problems or make the media want to write about them?  . . read more

What Part Will You Play? - From Rashes101
17 dec  |  As daunting as the problem of climate change is, it is still only a symptom of a deeper and more fundamental issue. The unstoppable force of human technological development and power is meeting the immovable object of our planet's biosphere. Our economies are built on the celebration of waste, our public discourse consists largely of a disconnected trivia in which celebrity is valued above knowledge or responsibility, and our commercial and political institutions are incapable of long or even medium term thinking. Nevertheless, there ARE reasons for hope.

And the one thing that is certain is that we WILL change. The question is whether we will change in our own, orderly, way according to our choice, or be changed chaotically by forces beyond our control. Whatever happens, we won't be living like this in fifty years. Reality will triumph over the most entrenched hubris and arrogance. Faith in the technology that has caused so many of our problems is misplaced without the wisdom to temper that power. These are dramatic times - times that will be remembered for many millennia to come, whatever kind of world we leave our descendants.

In the end, perhaps the most important crisis is a personal one, inside each and everyone of us. What did YOU do when it counted? What part did YOU play? What kind of a person will the crisis of climate change expose you to be? In the end, there are no more important questions than these: Who are you? Why are you here?

(An extract from the avalanche of comments in response to Guardian columnist George Monbiot's call for the "complete decarbonisation of the global economy") . . read more

Agriculture out of the ETS but who will suffer?- by Sean Maguire
18 nov  |  For worried farmers, Rudd's announcement that agriculture would permanently be outside the ETS must have brought some relief. The announcement was also sweetened when the possibility was raised that farmers may be able to buy carbon credits with good land management and a reduction of carbon emissions.  . . read more
What's Wrong With Water - From Terry D. McGee
2 sep  |  On Sunday Australia saw Scorched a TV disaster movie set in Sydney. The political sub-plot was about the New South Wales government being involved in corruption surrounding the water supply for the city and a shortage of long term supplies. Early on reporter Susan Shapiro throws in the key line "There's something really wrong about ...water... in Sydney".

The fictional movie tells of disaster from bad plumbing (and corruption). But everyday in Sydney the "something really wrong about water" goes on and on. Sydney Water doesn't want to reduce usage - it keeps encouraging more water use by charging fixed fees for pipes in and pipes out (over 80% of my bill) and barely charging (like 18%) for the actual water people use. If I reduce my water use by 50% I'll reduce my bill by 9%. If you reduce your water use by 50% how much do you reduce your bill? With the future desalination plant there'll be a slight increase in usage charge but not much. Cheap water will keep being wasted. People get bugger all incentive to become water wise and to let Warragamba Dam build up to record levels and let the river system also be flushed out for the river's health.

Sydney Water could easily change its billing practice without reducing overall income by gradually reducing fixed fees and increasing its per kilolitre usage charge. This would reduce water use per head of population because the benefit would be tangible. As long as it announced such a gradual change and stuck to it people and businesses could adapt, install equipment and learn to save more water. The NSW Government and Sydney Water have had years to do this but they don't want to. They want more water use & more electricity use. They would rather spend money on advertising campaigns and water police in cars than actually solve the problem. This is what's really wrong about water in Sydney, not personal corruption, but the system that wants perpetual growth and doesn't want to change.

 . . read more
Taxes, Rationality, Economics, Angst, Science Or Novation From The Outsider
20 dec  |  Copenhagen-shmagen!

No amount of technology, diplomacy and political manouevering can hide the fact that to achieve innovation when it comes to global action on climate is a matter of ethics. And that ethical outcomes are themselves dependent on what we want to do.

The geopolitics of who goes first, the economic compensation programs, the views of scientists are all second order issues.

You can’t give up smoking unless you want to and once volition is in play then it’s pretty easy.

Ditto the inconvenient truth.

Let’s create an ethical harmony based on desire before we try and nut out the programme for implementation. That requires a universal accord and not one driven by the power brokers.

‘All for one and one for all’.  . . read more

We're All In This Together - From Carl Sagan
10 nov  |  We are in the process of a great unification of the human species. We have only recently and quickly moved from the fastest rate of communication being how fast a human could run to the speed of light, according to Special Relativity the ultimate speed limit. Comparable increases have been made in the speed of transportation. We now are entertained on a global scale. The economies of the nations of the world are now integrated, the stock markets coalesced, the economic well-being of one country affecting the economic well-being of many others.

The global environment, changes in the global environment are a common threat to everyone on earth. A molecule of chloroflurocarbon that rises over Chicago affects the health of people in Chile. A carbon dioxide molecule that rises into the atmosphere over China affects the climate in Europe. These molecules do not have passports, they are foolishly unaware of the importance of national boundaries and national sovereignty.

In the current, serious, environmental crisis, we are all in the same boat. No one generation and no one nation has been responsible and no one generation and no one nation can by itself solve the problem. This is a multi-generational, multi-national task and if we fail in it we fail the future of our species. . . read more

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"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it." -- Ronald Reagan (1986)